Sunday, 19 February 2017

4 KEY BETTING FACTORS EVERY PUNTER MUST KNOW(Become a Pro Tipster)

4 KEY BETTING FACTORS EVERY PUNTER MUST KNOW 




There  are  numerous  factors  that  influence  the  results  of  matches.  Many  can  be  revised before  a  game  starts,  giving  indication  to  likely  outcomes.  However,  some  key  factors  are easily  overlooked,  especially  when  not  enough  time  is  given  researching.  By  acknowledging more  influential  factors,  one  can  bet  more  accurately  and  improve  success  rates.  These include: 


1. CUP GAMES – Like  in  derby  games,  the  weaker  side  tends to  raise  their  performance in  cup  games.  This  makes  the  favourite  team  a  more  risky  selection  to  opt  for  than  if it  was  a  standard  league  fixture.  The  FA  Cup  is  a  prime  example  of  this,  hosting numerous ‘upsets’ (where the weaker side wins) consistently for years.


2. DERBY  GAMES  –  Derby  games  are  always  hard  to  predict.  When  one  team  is significantly  higher  in the  table  and/or  in much  better  form  than their  opponents,  it  still makes  for  a  risky  selection  as  most  times  the  weaker  side  will  raise  their  game, treating  the  fixture  like  a  cup  final  and  wanting  the  fans  to  earn  ‘bragging  rights’  over their local neighbours. 


3. INTERNATIONAL  GAMES  –  With  international  teams  not  playing  together  as  often  as club  sides,  it  can  be  harder  for  players  to  gel  together.  Also,  the  form  of  an international  side  can  be  harder  to  judge  due  to  less  fixtures  being  played  and  often games  are  separated  by  weeks/months  at  a  time.  As  such,  international  games  are generally less predictable than club games. 


4. GAME SIGNIFICANCE –


 a.  Will  the  game  lift  a  team  closer  to  winning  the  league  or  save  a  team from relegation?  These  are  major  motives  that  often  cause  teams  to  raise  their  performance.  This can  go  as  detailed  as  to  ‘goal  difference’  (when  two  or  more  teams  end  up  on  the same  points  tally,  goals  conceded  in  the  season  are  subtracted  from  goals scored  to  decide  who  should  be  placed  above  the  other).  In  the  2013/14  season, Liverpool  found  themselves  3-0  up  to  weaker  opposition  in  Crystal  Palace,  but  to contend  for  the  title  they  needed  to  score  as  many  goals  as  possible  to  match Manchester  City’s  goal  difference.  As  such,  they  ended  up  substituting  too  many attacking  players  on  the  field,  resulting  in  the  defence  to  weaken  significantly enough  to  end  up  drawing  the  game  3-3.  It  is  obviously  a  rare  occasion  when  a side  throws  away  a three  goal  lead,  but  it  is  understandable when analysed. 


b.  Are  more  challenging  and/or  important  fixtures  taking  place  soon  after  a fixture?  

Key Players tend to rest when midweek games are been played. Especially when a difficult fixture is on the horizon, Whether the more Challenging games is on the weekend or in midweek,  key  players  may  be  rested  beforehand.  For example,  strong  teams  often  put  weaker  sides  out  for  League  Cup  fixtures,  as the League  Cup  is  not  seen as  a  priority  to  them.  However,  weaker  sides  see  it  as  an opportunity  to  earn  silverware.  This  is  the  formula  for  potential  upsets.  Key players  are  sometimes  ‘rested’  (not  featured)  if  a  team  has  a  difficult  European fixture  midweek  and  are  playing  a  weaker  side  in  the  league  the  weekend before. Waiting  until  the  team  sheets  are  announced  (usually  15  minutes  before  kickoff) resolves this problem as you can see the manager’s selections for the games.

c. Friendly Games.

Friendly  games  are  probably  the  hardest  to  predict  as  there’s  nothing  to  play  for except  pride.  Even  then,  players  don’t  tend  to  play  their  hardest.  Also,  managers tend to use  friendly  games to try  out  untested  players  such  as  youth team  players and  players  making  a  comeback  from  injury.  As  such,  these  are  the  riskiest matches to bet on.

d. Is it a fixture decided over two games/‘legs’? 

Some  cup  games  are  played  over  two  matches,  one  at  each  team’s  stadium.  The first  game  can  sometimes  be  cagey,  with  sides  playing  more  reserved.  Also,  the team  playing  away  from  their  home  ground  in  the  first  leg  may  target  a  draw, focusing  more  on  defending  well  as  opposed  to  attacking  to  win  due  to  the  fact that  they  themselves  will  then  be  more  vulnerable  to  counter  attacks.  This  is  a tactic  that  is  opted  for  by  some  managers  with  the  mentality  that  if  they  are playing  away  for  the  first  leg,  then  they  can  afford  to  draw  there  and  win  the second  leg  at  their  home  ground.  Researching  manager’s  tactics  in  previous  cup fixtures  decided  over  two  games  can  give  some  insight  to  whether  they  may  opt for  this  tactic.  Also,  if  the  opposition  are  strong  then  away  team’s  often  focus  on defending  the  draw  for  the  first  leg. So,  the  nature  of  first  legs  can  be  hard  to  predict  and  might  be  worth  avoiding. However,  the  second  leg  of  the  fixture  can  sometimes  be  easier  to  judge.  For example,  if  a  side  wins  the  first  leg  by  three  goals  and  the  opposition  doesn’t pose  a  strong  threat,  then  they  may  choose  to  field  a  weaker  side  as  winning  the second  game  isn’t  vital.  They  could  lose  the  second  game  by  two  goals  and  still progress  in  the  competition  (eg.  3-2  on  aggregate).  Likewise,  if  a  side  are  losing going  into  the  second  leg,  then  they  must  score  goals  to  stay  in  the  competition. So  that  scenario  signifies  potential  for  more  goals  from  the  side  that  needs  to score  and  the  other  side  through  counter  attacks.  Occasionally  sides  will  defend their  leads  from  the  first  leg  with  a  0-0  draw  in  the  second  leg  but  it’s  rarer.  


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1 comment:

  1. Enter your comment...wonderful site great, great tips tnx admin

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